Gartner hype cycle indicators forex

The Fed has put out multiple warnings. What's more, the next batch of QE will be more targeted. The first target will likely be the Repo market where the Fed has put a trillion dollar facility under their pillow for when it's needed. As I said then, I don't know who got bailed out in , but the next time, there will be a Lehman like sacrifice. That is, the dirtiest flees will be exterminated. So, while sentiment can keep pushing things up to even more irrational levels, at some point, liquidity speaks and sentiment listens and that's all I got to say about that, for now.

Maybe one year is a little up and the other a little down. Whatever the case, I don't see earnings meaningfully advancing short term. If I'm wrong, then I guess it's back to "well, I guess the markets can stay irrational a long time. I think for valuations not to contract, earnings will have to surprise to the upside and I see that as very unlikely.

You'll have to watch momentum indicators when the time comes. Three core reasons: The QQQ stocks have most of the corporate cash in the stock market and that won't change anytime soon as tech, consumer discretionary, fintech and biotech, which dominate QQQ and QQQJ, lead the markets. That won't persist. That is, the QQQ stocks are both faster growing as a group and richer.

That's a pretty good combination. Make sure to check sustainable growth rates and debt for those. There's at least one that is no growth and very heavy in debt - cough, Exxon XOM. Here's another way to look at it: Stock Rover Chart What does that tell you? First off, Exxon and Chevron are not cash rich. They're investment rich. What if those assets get written down again and again, like have been written down again and again already?

Short answer: Don't gamble on declining secular trends. Sell the cyclical rallies when you can. Like now. Most importantly, you can see that 16 of the 40 most cash rich companies are on the Nasdaq Eventually, I think we'll all move to factor based indexes. For now, the quants have not figured out how to do that in an ETF, so, you'll have to stick with stock picking. The Great Divergence This leads me to the most important point about the stock market that hasn't mattered as much the past two years as historically: The stock market is a market of stocks.

This will take a few years, but it's coming. Stock picking is going to become much more important. So, have good sunglasses, because a lot of people who think they're great investors because the Fed paddled for them will be getting out of the waves naked. There are already plenty that meet the market cap requirement. And dozens are at the profitability requirement so inclusion is imminent and others are very close closing in on inclusion. One of the most important things active investors can do is respect cycles.

So, look there to find winners and losers. I like to buy cyclical losers that are within secular uptrends. And, sell cyclical winners that are within secular downtrends. There's no doubt that passive investors are a thing now.

Most retirement plan money only gets touched when people see really bad headlines or feel like their "missing it. That's good. If they panic sell, that's bad. Really bad. I don't think the panic gets too bad. A recent study by MIT demonstrated that older men are likely to panic sell stocks. If you need to manage your risk, I suggest you do it now, don't wait until there's blood in the street to get queasy. I think many Boomers will panic and not come back to stocks. Millennials will be at the heart of the Great Divergence.

While there are always irrational crowds to bet against, bet against the Millennials at your own peril. They are better traders than the Boomers by a mile. Your best bet is to ride alongside, or wait for them to destroy good small caps just because they can in thinly traded markets when the collude online. Yeah, Millennials collude. Catch them if you can. But, I don't think anyone can. I mean heck, it would be easier to catch hedge funds and they never get busted. They do oversell small caps with regularity.

That deserves regular watching because many of the companies they shake down they buy right back up. The narratives are trying to say it will be OK. Some authors are saying it doesn't matter. Flat out those authors are wrong. However, we do have to be mindful of the excess level of liquidity and the probability that interest rates don't go up until aging demographics start to flatten out in a couple decades.

Regardless there are direct correlations abound for the Fed's impact on markets. Anyone who says otherwise is mistaken. I'm not going to regurgitate. Please let your clicker finger do the walking. Time frames are all that matter though if you are a trader, so, go ahead and try to be a just in time seller if you want to. If you are an investor, a great opportunity is coming soon. Interest Rates Since we're on the Fed let's talk interest rates.

I'd be surprised if we got more than two interest rate hikes by the Fed and I could see one or zero in The yield curve will flatten a bit more as long-term growth expectations return to pre-Covid levels. That is "slow growth forever" is real and forever. Where investors should beware is in high-yield debt.

The spread is in the danger zone again. I wouldn't own junk debt. The Fed saved you once, they aren't going to do it again anytime soon. They are as susceptible to secular trends and cycles as any other industry, maybe more so, due to being capital intensive, that is, relying largely on financing. Here's some factors I'm considering for Recent massive rally in most residential and much other real estate.

Less easy financing - again, not tight, just less loose - and slightly higher interest costs. Continuing tightness in supply chains keeping input prices firm on redevelopment and building. No end in sight for semi-skilled labor for maintenance and upkeep. Admin costs will continue to come down as technology is further implemented and improved. Virtually no U.

It was the lowest since the nation's founding last year at barely over. Record low home inventory will give way to a large influx of new constructions in the second half of , particularly multifamily. Continued renovation and redevelopment costs for office buildings and malls. Industrial looks strong as supply chains continue to move back to America. The most recent NAHB housing market index that measures builder views of demand demonstrates that: AdvisorPerspectives. That's hard to get in a condo or apartment building.

As a result, new constructions are picking up as much as labor will allow. For affluent buyers, new builds will take them out of the renter market. That means some turnover for REITs. In addition, there's a significant surge in multifamily coming online in H2 Some of that is certainly from the REITs, but also private equity and other investors.

Higher supply will crimp margins or at least flatten them according to CBRE. I do think the "easy money" has been made on most residential REITs in general though. The following chart shows where some of the top residential REITs are in their cycles. Look at the five-year price ranges.

Stock Rover Chart I know some folks never sell, so the following is for people who do manage their asset allocation and is of course dependent on your taxes and other considerations. And, remember, taking single stock risk is only worth it if you anticipate a strong chance to beat the indexes. Also, I guess I need to say this judging from some comments when I say sell something, but, none of these are horrible companies unless I say so outright.

They're just "meh" or worse investments at this point. Sell the following residential REITS or just monitor for now and look to reenter on a correction back to the middle or lower end of historical price ranges: Invitation Homes INVH which owns a portfolio of 81, single-family rental homes. It has substantial risks to flight from its markets. It is susceptible to economic slowdowns due to its shorter leases.

Some of its markets are extra vulnerable to migration. My sells are similar in many ways. In general, the smaller residential REITs is where to look for value if you sift through the individual projects. Office buildings are being forced to spread out work spaces and I don't think that goes away even as Covid gradually becomes a lower attention issue hopefully in the future.

I think more elbow room or "air space" in offices is the new thing. In addition, there is a lot more HVAC work that still has to be done, in addition to, upgrading building sustainability - which also applies to residential on a slightly lesser level. That said, if you tear this one apart based on expected costs over the next few years, there is an argument for a positive post-Covid experience.

The questions are when and from what price? My abbreviated checklist: Great balance sheets or good balance sheets that are getting better, which aids them in times of financial tightness and aids them in optionality. Long-term secular industry growth, for example, tech, 5G, certain medical, companies that benefit from shifting supply chains. Lower cyclical economic risk, i.

What's the point of taking single stock risk otherwise? Buy the correction in Amazon. It won't be the last. Buy any double-digit percentage pullback. The question is how big a correction will that be. A lot of post deal SPACs are beaten up way beyond what dilution, balance sheets and just being considered small caps would normally dictate.

There is a general "hate" for SPACs and while some of that is justified, it's just way over the top now. The SPAC hate has jumped the shark so to speak. There's SPAC blood in the streets. They don't all deserve to die. Find some long-term winners.

We have a basket. Currently has 12 satellites deployed, including six in the past month. As the full constellation is deployed, expenses will fall and subscription revenues for data will climb. Volatile with long-term big upside. Healthcare Payers, " as a sample vendor for the population health management solutions PHM category. The category has been identified as "sets of IT capabilities and related services that enable healthcare organizations to achieve health, cost, and experience goals for a discrete population of individuals.

According to the report, "By selecting the right technologies, timing and approaches, the [payer] organization can better meet the health value needs of members and purchasers alike, while increasing profitability and reinvestment. The solutions help payers integrate disparate data sources into a unified member record, which provides a single source of truth from which they can generate analytic insights about patients in their networks; drive connectivity with providers and members; and enable digital collaboration between payers, providers, and members.

In total, this enables payers to optimize operations and reduce the cost of care while enhancing member outcomes and provider experiences. This comes at a crucial time for payers as they are rethinking their existing business models to deliver the exceptional experiences today's members expect with the care management and care coordination capabilities they need to improve and bend the healthcare cost curve while improving outcomes at both the personal and population levels.

We thank Gartner for their thoughtful analysis and look forward to working with payers to help them achieve their digital transformation goals.

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