Betting formula

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Want it made simpler? If two teams are about as good as each other then the draw could be a value bet. Testing out the theory of under-priced draws That was what I found by plotting the odds. I then took that observation and made some money from it. I tripled my money over the season. But I had doubled my money by Christmas. Soccermatics came out in May , just as the Premier League was coming to a close. I monitored how it went for my model the season after.

Here is the result. Not so good. There was a small profit to be made in the first few weeks, but then it flatlined for the rest of the season. Lessons learn from using my model There are four lessons to be learnt from my model. It came from a small error in how the odds were being set.

If you want to create your own model of sporting outcomes you need to use the odds as the starting point. I downloaded my odds from Oddsportal and then double-checked my model against those on football-data. I then made a prediction and applied it to the next year and it continued to work. There is a lot of randomness in betting and it is possible to win for quite a long period of time with luck alone.

But this was a long-term trend that was profitable. Thirdly, nothing lasts forever. In moments of self-aggrandising I like to think that my book led to a market correction. See those odds for Liverpool at home against Manchester United at the weekend…. This is just one explanation, though. Another is that managers realised that in those big matches between equally good teams they should go for the three points this is also something I look at in the book.

There are other explanations too. The fact is, I will never know for sure, but the odds bias I found has gone. My fourth and final conclusion is: I am a total idiot. I spent three months developing a betting model. I found a way to win. There is always a profit margin added by the bookmaker in these odds, which means that the payout to the successful punter is always less than what they should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances.

The bookmaker needs to estimate the true probability or chance of an outcome correctly in order to set the odds on display in such a way that it profits the bookmaker regardless of an event outcome. This is because the odds on display are not fair odds. The bookie has an edge built into the odds. According to a study published in the Journal of Gambling Studies, the more hands a player wins, the less money they are likely to collect, especially with respect to novice players.

That is because multiple wins are likely to yield small stakes, for which you need to play more, and the more you play, the more likely you will eventually bear the brunt of occasional and substantial losses. Behavioral economics comes into play here. A player continues playing the lottery , either in hopes of a big gain that would eventually offset the losses or the winning streak compels the player to keep playing. In both cases, it is not rational or statistical reasoning but the emotional high of a win that motivates them to play further.

Consider a casino. All of the details—including the game rules, music, controlled lighting effects, alcoholic beverages, and the interior decor—are carefully planned and designed to the house's advantage. The house wants you to stay and continue playing. Naturally, the games offered by the casino have a built-in house edge, although the house advantage varies with the game. Moreover, novices find it particularly difficult to do cognitive accounting and people often misjudge the variance of payouts when they have a streak of wins, ignoring the fact that frequent modest gains are eventually erased by losses, which are often less frequent and larger in size.